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7月5日 翻了翻去年给人写的邮件2006-9-15
...... What I'm concerning about is whether the market, Chinese A shares, is worth investing. The answer is yes. Even though uncertain risks still exist, A shares are generally underestimated, comparing to international standard. In other words, stocks are cheap in China, which can be a strong reason to give A shares a certain percentage in the portfolio.
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2006-12-25
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Speaking of myself, everything is going on normally except for the booming market. The index hits the historical highest point every day. Most of the common stocks has doubled their prices. I can't even believe the rate of return this year. Those close-end funds we talked about earlier have greatly reduced their discounts, bringing significant extra profits than average. Right now, from my point of view, the systemic opportunity of Chinese A shares is smaller than a year ago, when the Shang Hai index was around 1000 points (today's closing quotation is 2435 points). A large group of common stocks are overprice (Some has a P/E of more than 100). However, it's hard to tell whether the foam is already formed. There are still sections which are undervalued, such as automobile, household appliance manufacturers and close-end funds (still have an discount of about 20%). Even if there is foam, it's very hard to tell how long it will last and how big it's going to be before it breaks. For short, predicting the market is nearly impossible. Therefore, the right thing to do is allocating an appropriate portion of the capital to participate in the market and hold them still.
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